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The influential Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington (IHME), has revised a key piece of coronavirus modeling – almost doubling its prediction of the number of Americans likely to be killed by coronavirus, forecasting at least 134,000 deaths in the US by early August. Previously it had predicted just over 74,000 deaths.

The IHME’s modeling has been cited by the White House coronavirus task force at its once-frequent briefings, which petered out last week.

Christopher Murray, director of the IHME, said the team is gathering data about Americans’ mobility and pointed out that, among other factors influencing the upward trajectory, key data are being studied and processed to “reflect the effect of premature relaxation of social distance, which has a substantial effect”. The university is planning to issue further details, as many states coast to coast plan partial a reopening of society and business.

The IHME revision comes as reports on the White House’s internal projections have raised questions about the safety of reopening strategies across the country.

More from the Guardian on coronavirus modeling:









French president Emmanuel Macron said he is confident that the United States will join a global pledge for research to find a vaccine against the new coronavirus.

World leaders, organizations and banks on Monday pledged to give 7.4 billion euros ($8 billion) during a videoconference summit hosted by the European Union. The US, along with Russia, were notably absent from the event, the AP writes.

Macron, who donated 500 million euros on behalf of France, noted that the US “are on the sidelines” but added that it doesn’t compromise or slow down the initiative.
Speaking from the Elysee palace in Paris, he said he discussed the issue with President Donald Trump and is convinced that the US will at some point join the initiative, consisting in finding a vaccine as quickly as possible and making it available to all countries.

Macron added that his government is in permanent dialogue with the Trump administration and with American companies. The Guardian has covered more on this topic in our global coronavirus live blog.









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